What’s Up Crypto:

Here’s your high-impact recap of the top crypto headlines.

🟠 1. $330M Ponzi Scheme Case Unfolds

A major legal action has been filed in New York against UK-born businessman Peter McInnes, allegedly behind a £330 million crypto Ponzi scheme via TradeAI and Stakx. Investors report blocked withdrawals and significant financial losses. The case is ongoing, with ties to Dubai art ventures and U.K. police involvement.

Why It Matters: This case underscores the persistent risks in unregulated crypto yield schemes and could lead to greater cross-border enforcement and KYC scrutiny in crypto investment platforms.

🟠 2. Circle Stock’s Whiplash

Since its June 5 IPO, Circle’s stock has rocketed ~450% to $180 before plunging nearly 25% in two days amid profit-taking and valuation concerns. Wall Street now divided: Bernstein bullish on its stablecoin dominance, while J.P. Morgan and Goldman see overvaluation.

Why It Matters: Circle’s performance directly impacts stablecoin infrastructure and investor sentiment, influencing stablecoin-related projects and regulatory momentum globally.

🟠 3. Robinhood’s Big Crypto Push

Robinhood is expanding crypto features: tokenized U.S. equities, perpetual futures with 3× leverage in Europe, and staking services for Ethereum and Solana in the U.S.—backed by acquisitions like Bitstamp and WonderFi.

Why It Matters: This move signals mainstream brokerage commitment to crypto, potentially increasing retail and institutional on-ramps while testing U.S. regulatory tolerance for advanced crypto products.

🟠 4. SoFi Returns to Crypto

After pausing services in 2023, SoFi will launch crypto features — including custody, staking, and blockchain-based money transfers — in late 2025. A waitlist is open now.

Why It Matters: Large fintech re-entry may restore user trust in consumer-facing crypto offerings while increasing competition in the crypto banking and payments sector.

🟠 5. Escalating Real-World Crypto Risks

A troubling rise in physical crimes—kidnappings, home invasions—targeting crypto holders, with 231 reported incidents. Many are now hiring extra security, especially ahead of events like the Ethereum Community Conference.

Why It Matters: Rising offline risks highlight the maturing value and physical security implications of crypto wealth, signaling a need for better operational security practices.

Decoding Bitcoin's Price: A Data-Driven Strategy for Navigating Market Cycles

Ever feel like Bitcoin's price is a rollercoaster with no tracks? Just when you think you've got a handle on it, the market throws another curveball. The truth is, there's a formula for driving those ups and downs, and it's more predictable than you might think.

Many crypto investing strategies rely on a framework like this, built on global liquidity, leverage trading data, and investor behavior. These are the same three forces that have quietly driven every Bitcoin boom and bust cycle.

Why Traditional Analysis Falls Short

While no one person or data point can pick the exact top and the bottom of a market, traditional methods often fall short in providing a complete picture:

• On-chain data alone: While valuable, on-chain data, such as the number of active addresses or wallets holding Bitcoin, is insufficient in today's market. The rise of derivatives trading has significantly impacted price action.

• Technical analysis: Trying to predict Bitcoin's price solely by looking at charts and identifying repeating patterns.  But it can be misleading.

• Macro trends: While macro trends are undoubtedly important, they don't tell the whole story. We need a more comprehensive approach.

So, what's the solution? It's time to look at the data that drives Bitcoin's price.  Before we dive into these drivers, let me clarify how I use Bitcoin's price to inform my decisions on other crypto asset investments.  Firstly, I'm a firm believer in Bitcoin and hold the majority of my portfolio in it.  However, I do invest in a few other blue-chip crypto assets, and I use Bitcoin as a benchmark to determine when to buy or sell these assets. 

As you'll see, I only buy Bitcoin and don't plan on selling it for a long time.  But I do use Bitcoin's price to determine when I buy or sell these other crypto assets.  The key strategy is to sell these other crypto assets when Bitcoin's price, as indicated by the following charts and indicators, approaches its peak.

The 3 Key Drivers of Bitcoin's Price

These drivers consist of three main components:  Global Liquidity, Leverage Investing, and Network Profitability. Let's break them down: This data can be found in many places, but I like to use Bitcoin Magazine's data-driven charts.

A. Global Liquidity

Global liquidity is what feeds the Bitcoin price. It refers to the total amount of money available in the global financial system. It's crucial to understand global liquidity, not just US M2. Bitcoin is a global asset, and its price is influenced by monetary policies worldwide. As governments print more money, the value of goods and services increases, and that liquidity flows into assets like Bitcoin. Whether China prints money or the US Fed injects liquidity, the price of Bitcoin should rise. It's the most sensitive asset to global liquidity.

B. Leverage:

Leverage, primarily through the derivatives market, acts as an accelerator or brake for Bitcoin's price.

The derivatives market allows investors to bet on the future price of Bitcoin without actually owning the asset. This can amplify price movements, both up and down. Derivatives make up three to five times the total volume of Bitcoin.  A high volume of leveraged traders can push the price up by going long, or put the brakes on fast by going short.  The chart below shows the risk of a reversal in the bitcoin price.

C. Network Profitability (On-Chain Indicators)

Network profitability measures the proportion of Bitcoin holders who are in profit or at a loss. This influences their behavior and, consequently, the market. If more investors are in profit, they might want to sell some of their bitcoin, driving the price down; if more are in a loss, they might want to hold onto their bitcoin, hoping the price rises.  This can be an indicator of when Bitcoin’s price may move.

Key on-chain indicators include:

MVRV score: The ratio of market value to realized value. Historically, high MVRV scores have been associated with Bitcoin peaks.

Over time, you can see that when the orange line, representing the Z-score, peaks, the bitcoin price, represented by the black line, also peaks.  And you can see we are nowhere near a Bitcoin all-time high.

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): Shows the total unrealized profit or loss of Bitcoin holders. High levels of unrealized profit can signal potential sell-offs.

You can see from the past that when the NUPL line in blue reaches a high, it tends to correlate with a Bitcoin all-time high price.  And you can see we currently have room to move higher before the lines intersect. 

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): Measures the profit ratio of spent Bitcoin outputs. High SOPR values can indicate market tops.

When we see high volume in the green or red, it typically correlates with Bitcoin’s price.  So, you can see that there is green volume, but it still has far to go before it tops out and the Bitcoin price starts to move down.

Last is one of my favorite charts, and it is probably the simplest one—the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart.

When price hits the red range, the market is overbought and near the top of its range.

Monitoring these Bitcoin on-chain indicators provides valuable insights into market sentiment.

How to Use This Information: Strategic Positioning, Not Timing

This framework is not a crystal ball. It won't tell you exactly when Bitcoin's price will peak or when the next dip will occur. Instead, it provides a framework for strategic positioning, not timing the market.

I advise against trying to time the market for Bitcoin.  As I explained above, I hold my other crypto assets only temporarily and sell when I see the Bitcoin price at or near its peak. But for Bitcoin, I never want to miss a big move.  In 2017, Bitcoin's value increased from $1,000 to $20,000 in just one year. If you had sold when indicators suggested it was overbought at $4,000 or $5,000, you would have missed the massive run to $20,000.

Instead, focus on tiered entries for Bitcoin.  Buy more aggressively when the charts and indicators shown above indicate room for the price to move up, and slow down buying as the indicators show the price is at the top of the market.

The Dynamic Nature of the Market: Staying Vigilant

Remember, the charts and indicators are dynamic and constantly change. It's crucial to continuously monitor them and adapt your strategy accordingly.

The core drivers remain the same: liquidity, leverage, and human emotion. By understanding these forces, you can better navigate the crypto market and make informed investment decisions.

_{Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This article is strictly educational and does not provide investment advice, solicit the purchase or sale of any assets, or encourage readers to make financial decisions. Please use caution and conduct independent research.}